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Sea surface network optimization for tsunami forecasting in the near field: application to the 2015 Illapel earthquake

Abstract

We propose a method for defining the optimal locations of a network of tsunameters in view of near real-time tsunami forecasting using sea surface data assimilation in the near and middle fields, just outside of the source region. The method requires first the application of the empirical orthogonal function analysis to identify the potential initial locations, followed by an optimization heuristic that minimizes a cost-benefit function to narrow down the number of stations. We apply the method to a synthetic case of the 2015 Mw8.4 Illapel Chile earthquake and show that it is possible to obtain an accurate tsunami forecast for wave heights at near coastal points, not too close to the source, from assimilating data from three tsunameters during 14 min, but with a minimum average time lag of nearly 5 min between simulated and forecasted waveforms. Additional tests show that the time lag is reduced for tsunami sources that are located just outside of the area covered by the tsunameter network. The latter suggests that sea surface data assimilation from a sparse network of stations could be a strong complement for the fastest tsunami early warning systems based on pre-modelled seismic scenarios.

Investigadores del Centro
Rodrigo Cienfuegos Carrasco · Roberto Benavente Bravo · Patricio Catalán Mondaca · Jorge Crempien De la Carrera
Revista
Geophysical Journal International
Área de investigación
Análisis del riesgo y mitigación
Autores
Rodrigo Cienfuegos Carrasco · Alejandro Urrutia · Roberto Benavente Bravo · Patricio Catalán Mondaca · Jorge Crempien De la Carrera · P Navarrete · K Satake · Y Wang · I Mulia
Temáticas
Inundaciones · Tsunamis
Año
2020
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